Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,598$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,129.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(59,129.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,761$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,503.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,503.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,793$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $285,268$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,524.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(303,524.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,080$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(9.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,886.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(41,886.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $239,815$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $250,103$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(8 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237,730.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(237,730.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,368$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(9.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,496.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,496.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $71,359$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,961$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,894.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(233,894.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,818$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,816.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,816.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,060$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $70,639$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,832.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 102.7)}}\) (asimptote \(97,832.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,411$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(899 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,193.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,193.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65,228$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $203,640$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189,668.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(189,668.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,878$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,891.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(28,891.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $96,835$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,546$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,914.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(47,914.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,132$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,017.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,017.4\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $44,228$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,489$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,085.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,085.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,738$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(390 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,684.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,684.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $387$ on 2020-07-02