Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,598$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,129.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(59,129.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,761$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,503.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,503.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,793$ on 2020-07-02

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $285,268$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,524.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(303,524.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,080$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(9.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,886.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(41,886.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $239,815$ on 2020-07-02

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $250,103$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(8 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237,730.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(237,730.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,368$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(9.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,496.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,496.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71,359$ on 2020-07-02

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,961$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,894.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(233,894.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,818$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,816.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,816.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,060$ on 2020-07-02

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,639$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,832.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 102.7)}}\) (asimptote \(97,832.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,411$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(899 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,193.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,193.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,228$ on 2020-07-02

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $203,640$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189,668.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(189,668.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,878$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(8.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,891.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(28,891.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $96,835$ on 2020-07-02

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,546$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,914.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(47,914.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,132$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,017.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,017.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,228$ on 2020-07-02

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,489$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,085.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,085.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,738$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(390 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,684.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,684.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $387$ on 2020-07-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malta recovered 96%
Estonia recovered 94%
Denmark recovered 89%
Italy recovered 86%
Lithuania recovered 80%
Hungary recovered 58%
Belarus recovered 47%
Poland recovered 21%

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $671$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(191 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{644.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(644.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-07-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-07-02

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,990$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(666 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,887.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,887.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(27.8 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68.0}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 24.2)}}\) (asimptote \(68.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79$ on 2020-07-02

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,015$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,404.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(12,404.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $606$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(193 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{588.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(588.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $440$ on 2020-07-02

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,825$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(618 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,692.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,692.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(20.8 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{78.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(78.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $211$ on 2020-07-02